I came across this video on Ted a couple of days ago. The presenter, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita’s, explains in a very simple way what is Game theory and why it is applicable to even the most complex negotiation situations. Although I do not want to want to discuss political topics on this blog (as I have no credibility in that area), I think that you will enjoy this video if you are interested in predicting what people might do.
If you do not have enough time to watch the entire video, jump to 8 minutes. Bruce talks about the 4 points to understand how to predict people’s behaviors:
1/ Who has a stake in the decision?
2/ What do they say they want?
3/ How focused are they on one issue compared to the other issues?
4/ How much persuasive influence could they exert?
Do you see how this could work in some of your complex situations? Do you believe this is impossible? Post a comment to get the discussion started!